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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a0d90ae9

Ariel Atkins Over 7.5 Points

Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-174

CLV

+1.99%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-10.2% vs league avg over 50 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-174-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-174
1.5747
Delta
+1.99%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1802
UUID0c98aa77-3615-4369-8334-3233928b6045
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-18 20:40 UTC
Graded2026-08-19 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha0d90ae941c6897f70434766c2b572b95bc0de78e919eeffabaa369a09bbbb89
Closing line-174 captured 2026-08-18 21:35 UTC
CLV delta+1.99%
Closing hashb502b4feb1127de75bf2b0535dbb2c390b6a80c52f4c6e0915c2153c08d7aef6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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