Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5b84731e

Chet Holmgren Over 12.5 Points

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

-175risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-175

Closing

-157

CLV

-4.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +30.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +30.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-9.6% vs league avg over 175 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-157+0.07 dec
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-157
1.6369
Delta
-4.00%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1006
UUID09dd5fb0-a411-4aaf-a451-518f46116278
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5b84731e99a2e67a3dca38634cc4c949295e0b8676933784a66df9de6e336f43
Closing line-157 captured 2026-05-22 23:11 UTC
CLV delta-4.00%
Closing hash08384e7a596a0e9f810e6a6873a39c20d12807b23eeb3e411ff2a3e25759a372

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801