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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b619c320

De'Aaron Fox Over 2.5 Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

-171risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-171

Closing

-178

CLV

+1.47%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.1% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+7.0% vs league avg over 131 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-171-178-0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-171
1.5848
Closing
-178
1.5618
Delta
+1.47%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1002
UUID5bdc225f-2e79-4125-8637-4c28c1577b12
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb619c32003e9780c85a339bf0eb6af2788e87ab1af2119729714c68621a85f3b
Closing line-178 captured 2026-05-22 23:11 UTC
CLV delta+1.47%
Closing hash67496dab7af3473b08e2b347b9522f1a19d4449ffba89eb913c6b009db1f61db

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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