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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8cf96c34

Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Hits

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-220

CLV

+8.04%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +9.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+12.7% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • Opposing starter Trevor Rogers blowing up: 10.4 ERA over last 3 starts at 2.9 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-175-220-0.12 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-220
1.4545
Delta
+8.04%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1072
UUID102cf067-c60d-49d3-ac49-9ba672309550
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-30 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8cf96c347daa8d5528a7214979544d01ee4220ac7104794a4837c857c56aedd6
Closing line-220 captured 2026-05-29 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+8.04%
Closing hash88fdbdd7f93b1af40a5961df201a80755becea98637ee6e4d14f5d4de550f5ef

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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