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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5498eec2

Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Hits

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-196

CLV

+4.05%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 63.6% implied → +7.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +7.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #27 vs this prop (-10.8% vs league avg over 292 games)
  • 81.7% over last 6 games

Line movement

-175-196-0.06 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
+4.05%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1049
UUID99a4fc57-8681-4628-b3b0-c40eba27766f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5498eec2928a60c9c9a180f6da16053bae5e6ae1f13d64050415705242747051
Closing line-196 captured 2026-05-26 22:11 UTC
CLV delta+4.05%
Closing hash0979f8c9d9d1291ec31c437b24af50b2ef905a427edec1094f71ed087ed5968d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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