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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c957156e

Nick Sogard Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-148

CLV

-4.15%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 91.1% over last 9 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 9 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #20 vs this prop (-2.8% vs league avg over 264 games)
  • 91.1% over last 9 games

Line movement

-165-148+0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-148
1.6757
Delta
-4.15%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1064
UUID4291201e-4345-4049-8bfa-bdeb5662ac8b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-28 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-29 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc957156eb4a5b5bfbcffd384d8e57b58e0b8f3b5856481267c5d3d81be5c0d61
Closing line-148 captured 2026-05-28 20:31 UTC
CLV delta-4.15%
Closing hash48e42763120bcef977451839e354098f8607d9201d0c8ac2beb4cdf8b79d63e0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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