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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e4404d3d

Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.12%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.9% over last 6 games vs 62.3% implied → +8.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+15.8% vs league avg over 276 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: 13 mph wind blowing IN (N): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-165-170-0.02 dec
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.12%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1065
UUID57759187-9b5c-4f3d-8023-5d97e4a51bba
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-28 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-29 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe4404d3de030e981a2655f124620c00db9603290cfed6631d9039be3d8dec64a
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-28 21:07 UTC
CLV delta+1.12%
Closing hashee8d8088e57fc747bfc2dcffa26e79114f66dd50c1696148e431d187e8b67656

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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