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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 80e4a245

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-162

CLV

-2.84%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.1% over last 8 games vs 63.6% implied → +6.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 8 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +6.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #26 vs this prop (-10.7% vs league avg over 274 games)
  • 76.1% over last 8 games

Line movement

-175-162+0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-2.84%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1066
UUID3caeb809-ee23-439b-b417-c6d11484c942
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-28 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-29 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash80e4a2452ec90851731c4cc142fe2a7f5fc6f89ed6436c23f6b29f0735771f61
Closing line-162 captured 2026-05-29 00:25 UTC
CLV delta-2.84%
Closing hash58fc2b12b7dbabd85cee5c97df9409c81df80b37e049292f15cd0d50ea9f2c63

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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