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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 517c80cb

Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 Hits

Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-150

CLV

-3.41%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 75.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +13.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +13.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-2.8% vs league avg over 291 games)
  • 75.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-150+0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-3.41%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1116
UUID97264bc4-7e07-4d24-b9cc-5979acde2536
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash517c80cb86aac059b101036396002973c103b1d5fee76ee0f4a8b98962105114
Closing line-150 captured 2026-06-03 21:47 UTC
CLV delta-3.41%
Closing hash1f19fd2b5d38bcf66cdb04bb19d254b05e66f9a8a1688b302f0a7482c64d4012

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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