Over 7.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros
Edge
Friendly alt over at 58.7% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (58.7% vs 64.3%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians8
Houston Astros1
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-142
1.7042
Closing
-104
1.9615
Delta
-13.12%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1263
UUID1742ccb3-a138-46fc-b8e8-2f859ea93947
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 22:01 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 01:50 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824180:2026-06-20T23:15:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash689c124f171f8488d38b7f734292516a4e998d6ae1b0f075423cf05889c5a647
Closing line-104 captured 2026-06-20 23:17 UTC
CLV delta-13.12%
Closing hash3e96e5af839d69b27fef7671c370b7d9e8de1ef6355c8ffbc3cf167b4ea88ca7
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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