Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 53.1% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Los Angeles Dodgers → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung (ref: f5b548)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles12
Los Angeles Dodgers1
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-113
1.8850
Closing
-114
1.8772
Delta
+0.41%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1270
UUIDaf6c421a-8150-4bc1-aca9-950311b68497
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 19:41 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 23:05 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823934:2026-06-21T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0c6a302e92e034a6a6c189096960c19cf8512e65b4726c84a0a38cdfaa716526
Closing line-114 captured 2026-06-21 20:11 UTC
CLV delta+0.41%
Closing hashe3bb5576d3d8f3411cda85ee0ca7e995a3982543782ca5e0403ad20c0e5df736
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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