Under 10.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Edge
Friendly alt under at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (63.0% vs 63.6%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung (ref: e7f695)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles12
Los Angeles Dodgers1
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-104
1.9615
Delta
-19.03%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1271
UUIDde8a4ee3-28cf-4e48-9df4-691c7d853c39
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 19:41 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 23:10 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823934:2026-06-21T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2506ed64e567ef839d47fb009f6889f52d92289eb0570a48eb86c2711c004644
Closing line-104 captured 2026-06-21 20:11 UTC
CLV delta-19.03%
Closing hashb63537cc05baa36309fbb3a847937f00757312c1a5c20a943603e546f62cff05
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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