Under 8.5
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt under at 62.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals2
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-22
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-118
1.8475
Delta
-13.07%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1298
UUIDa370a9de-8d56-4ede-a278-852decd8ae49
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-22 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 01:02 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822964:2026-06-22T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash25ddba38aab7a8d598c014029b9782f08dfaf38fb17101f612342536ed11d446
Closing line-118 captured 2026-06-22 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-13.07%
Closing hash3f66550bb698e561699a96081f86e4f5ddffbc7faeaf89ce63c5b0d35bdfb5f9
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.9% hashed1,267 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,256 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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