Tampa Bay Rays -1
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 57.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Tampa Bay Rays → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung (ref: 7e8cd4)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals2
Tampa Bay Rays1
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-22
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-135
1.7407
Closing
+113
2.1300
Delta
-18.28%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1297
UUIDa5746db6-862b-4da1-9ec8-09a57ff2001b
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-22 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 00:57 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822964:2026-06-22T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfeab334fd0cbc91dd3fdb14fa6ba12547415bf47f0534e3712a91bff752bfe21
Closing line+113 captured 2026-06-22 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-18.28%
Closing hash29e4a6f8dc8d6fa58f0ff04f3ae0b4303053f34312672844316b09e8a042aef4
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.9% hashed1,267 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,256 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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