Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 Rebounds
Washington Mystics @ TOR Tempo
Edge
Empirical 76.9% over last 13 games vs 63.5% implied → +11.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +11.6pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-8.2% vs league avg over 100 games)
- 76.9% over last 13 games
Line movement
-174-162+0.04 decModel Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-174
1.5747
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-2.63%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1410
UUID18a0c593-eb9a-49af-b073-460b356dcb0b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-13 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-07-15 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha81e80ae926336e3bbca6ab64a802da470cdbf37a896d466f24ed0a9bcc3883f
Closing line-162 captured 2026-07-14 21:46 UTC
CLV delta-2.63%
Closing hash213150e242df3de20d22052aeced375847e497bda11b0ac889072f797bd6441d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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