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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 69394c8e

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-186

CLV

+2.20%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +7.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 0ea485)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +7.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+12.2% vs league avg over 285 games)
  • 71.5% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-186-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+2.20%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1053
UUID2adbeaa5-02cf-4c8d-a47d-69da9f00e5db
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-27 18:36 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 01:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:825003:2026-05-27T19:05:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash69394c8e8f9f47db8e57aa70f525e28cbb137d404543f7a24a98519534edabf4
Closing line-186 captured 2026-05-27 18:36 UTC
CLV delta+2.20%
Closing hash09e06c5d14db9e47bcf6f38c0c52a7d69fe5ce2d6323a1f52b5d45a85af9ceae

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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