Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Hits
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
-240risk1u→win0.42u
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 70.6% implied (target 70%) — trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side at friendly rung (fanatics)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#465
UUID0d2c27fa-f694-49f2-b88e-9496d41622cc
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-05 23:24 UTC
Graded2026-05-06 01:57 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashab0c203b2c9e6c9e865a59a798d2af7445e88199b0d5c75617fbcdf673da17f1
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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