Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Total Bases
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
-235risk1u→win0.43u
LOSS
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 70.1% implied (target 70%) — trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side at friendly rung (fanatics) (ref: b924a8)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#467
UUID6899ea3a-fd93-469c-8d77-3268f9d7e6bc
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-05 23:24 UTC
Graded2026-05-05 23:42 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbb1c2d999c522854127ace74706501ba02631fe820be3bbf214bc037ad83fd7b
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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