Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
-300risk0.1u→win0.03u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 98.0% over last 6 games vs 75.0% implied → +9.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +9.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-3.0% vs league avg over 287 games)
- 98.0% over last 6 games
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#552
UUID0adbecc4-3444-492d-b640-9b2cc52bae45
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:37 UTC
Graded2026-05-09 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5dfde429f37c5ab0fd55f7c3e3d9d92b11ff55430c742ffd0314a8c65fc1e8a7
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