Dean Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
-275risk0.19u→win0.07u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 73.3% implied → +20.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +20.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (+4.2% vs league avg over 139 games)
- 93.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#546
UUID571acac7-4da5-48e0-afd9-1a6263005a2d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-08 18:33 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2cb2becfe5c56d12db5dc9ee6cb628a523b7e19bbb078c9f99428fc9c00f45da
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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