Shohei Ohtani Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers
Edge
Empirical 71.4% over last 14 games vs 63.5% implied → +7.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks9
Los Angeles Dodgers3
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-07-10
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1345
UUID5fd17c5c-5497-4216-9db2-861aed5f2438
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-12 02:18 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashafcf8dff80d1bc3094c74c1fe10387cbf50fe20e9e1fd694d72a272aec65e220
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801