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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e1f34b8c

Natasha Mack Over 5.5 Rebounds

Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury

-210risk0.15u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-210

Closing

-181

CLV

-4.91%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 67.7% implied → +18.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +18.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-6.7% vs league avg over 88 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-210-181+0.08 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-210
1.4762
Closing
-181
1.5525
Delta
-4.91%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1537
UUID60933ce3-b2ea-4522-8d7d-ff537166a254
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe1f34b8ccc31c7af7cf0a1bf398e589cd10ae04aa0533483489de0e1e4c5d424
Closing line-181 captured 2026-07-19 21:48 UTC
CLV delta-4.91%
Closing hashf479c312da019c11f82cc0bf2eb3f04c8f561c7a4e8c7a779b51ed04e154ac15

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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