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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-09💎Elite◆◆◆◆◆Nuro Edge 10.0LOCKED de9599c5

Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

-235risk0.21u→win0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-235

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +25.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +25.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+13.2% vs league avg over 280 games)
  • Opposing starter Kyle Freeland blowing up: 9.6 ERA over last 3 starts at 3.1 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#632
UUID2a51a208-762f-4f36-99c7-0cf3d4e77916
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashde9599c5a80043fc2c296b4669a12ddb8043260dba9cf4eff341017caa37122c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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