Nashville SC +0.25
D.C. United @ Nashville SC
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 83.3% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Audit trail
Pick ID#651
UUIDe54a7d27-9279-4cb8-9252-43de06ab8a05
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-10 00:45 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:30 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash55238e0a9cec510f9c22a1114e41994cc012911e8f2e97827a5f5f14436918c1
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