Caris LeVert Under 9.5 Points
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
-270WIN
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 73.0% implied → +20.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=28 < min 30
CLV math
Posted
-270
1.3704
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-14.68%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#699
UUID74a061ee-5281-4542-a696-465a34070f09
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-12 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-14 06:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3f1f7ce01cc71175cbcfd7d0c795880e8a5086782d995387141adbab021af889
Closing line-165 captured 2026-05-14 00:11 UTC
CLV delta-14.68%
Closing hash09834f0b1fd9793524a3b46d8a06249b3a5efbbe62cb843b5dab86d03041a3b6
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