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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3a3769a4

Seth Lugo Over 3.5 Strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-159

CLV

-3.53%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.5% over last 12 games vs 63.6% implied → +7.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 12 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Final · Grading detail
St. Louis Cardinals5
Kansas City Royals6
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-3.53%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1225
UUID6d10bac7-dd2d-4214-89c3-6f6c36904d4d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3a3769a49d7527b27fd3b4feb1876e22bd83d633ece0cdf8547df002b2479ad8
Closing line-159 captured 2026-06-19 22:46 UTC
CLV delta-3.53%
Closing hash07d3a8527ba03315ce90fa69938696718bed59c8bc696c2da5d4abbe94cfacdd

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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