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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4d9510c9

Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 Hits

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

-165risk0.18u→win0.11u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-165

Closing

-198

CLV

+6.71%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +26.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Toronto Blue Jays6
Boston Red Sox1
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-198
1.5051
Delta
+6.71%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1189
UUID711dd7c9-639d-4799-8cf5-22dcc784f839
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d9510c900b83a779732a5709be99d851ca24f238c76e1eb882f89a93ae011d8
Closing line-198 captured 2026-06-16 21:15 UTC
CLV delta+6.71%
Closing hashc940357b0e47310b94b1e6d1a31bbb929e22838a992fd898a7363930eed1538a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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