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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-12🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3f1f7ce0

Caris LeVert Under 9.5 Points

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

-270risk0.19u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-270

Closing

-165

CLV

-14.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 73.0% implied → +20.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=28 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +20.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (+6.1% vs league avg over 140 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-270-165+0.24 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-270
1.3704
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-14.68%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#699
UUID74a061ee-5281-4542-a696-465a34070f09
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-12 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-14 06:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3f1f7ce01cc71175cbcfd7d0c795880e8a5086782d995387141adbab021af889
Closing line-165 captured 2026-05-14 00:11 UTC
CLV delta-14.68%
Closing hash09834f0b1fd9793524a3b46d8a06249b3a5efbbe62cb843b5dab86d03041a3b6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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