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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-05🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5ee7c9fe

Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Hits

Minnesota Twins @ CHI White Sox

-163risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-163

Closing

-200

CLV

+7.57%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 62.0% implied → +18.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: cbb730)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Minnesota Twins6
Chicago White Sox4
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-09-05
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-163
1.6135
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+7.57%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#7592
UUIDc2b3d125-a996-401d-827d-6daaafc8a10d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-05 18:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-06 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5ee7c9fe3cbbae45773994e482d05aeaf01de1482af0109c5e11d29231925072
Closing line-200 captured 2026-09-05 22:38 UTC
CLV delta+7.57%
Closing hashb7e675117c01c0ac6f563de1952fed8875e5350cb3121cb9e21c7585fe6d1c0a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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