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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9f48c9cf

Andre Pallante Over 2.5 Strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-178risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-178

Closing

-200

CLV

+4.12%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +16.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
St. Louis Cardinals7
Arizona Diamondbacks8
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-07-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
+4.12%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1541
UUID78787fad-dd3e-45f4-b874-3148ecdc6f7e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9f48c9cff0ff54431e5dcb2d94c47c243cfc18e9b86f421a1bd087c904b6154a
Closing line-200 captured 2026-07-19 18:40 UTC
CLV delta+4.12%
Closing hashbf10c5f01d69b1b543850a00c93c8707b21f087c3a974e6e38c01b0f8eb0dc3c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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