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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-13🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fe6aca9f

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Hits

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

-166risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-166

Closing

-148

CLV

-4.37%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.0% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +10.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Detroit Tigers1
Cleveland Guardians3
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-06-13
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-148
1.6757
Delta
-4.37%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1161
UUID796d2853-8ba1-4ae5-b65e-0f03c958624e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfe6aca9f340a120c1e3c127a99f2c8634560461e83afc4bd0b72f9a552c78006
Closing line-148 captured 2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
CLV delta-4.37%
Closing hashc3d87838695aa532e3de0bd593ac0dd3237e4259b038371cbba867c684fcb6d5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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