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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c60e22d6

Rafael Flores Over 0.5 Hits

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-190

CLV

+4.06%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +17.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
St. Louis Cardinals5
Pittsburgh Pirates1
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-09-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
40.0%
2-3
ROI
-30.20%
-0.19u
CLV avg
+1.95%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+4.06%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12760
UUID921fffd8-ed21-46ab-92e9-f43b9f7593b0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-24 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc60e22d6909528988abf959439c71a8c5cafee2c8df1faac50528d34877313ab
Closing line-190 captured 2026-09-23 21:22 UTC
CLV delta+4.06%
Closing hash8f4ff516c126968dfb1e610a51a2590753d463620697b8eb962be465abb3eff8

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.2% hashed
    1,374 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.7% closed
    1,373 settled picks · 65.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public1 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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