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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 69d4f05e

Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 Hits

San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox

-179risk0.17u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-179

Closing

-186

CLV

+1.37%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +24.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants4
Boston Red Sox6
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-08-21
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+1.37%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1816
UUIDca9cb3d1-35e8-415c-bc0c-b1d4a12b0b95
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-21 18:13 UTC
Graded2026-08-22 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash69d4f05e49c7f9ad22fc65b204147feca8128e71abc7a1cbf22248a7ce2b1e5b
Closing line-186 captured 2026-08-21 21:50 UTC
CLV delta+1.37%
Closing hash9d93902be5f2f20ca921fb3e1aedabd40414cc6fd0bffb128b2617c90d03282b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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