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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0d129940

Victor Caratini Over 0.5 Total Bases

Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-169

CLV

+0.90%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Minnesota Twins5
Arizona Diamondbacks9
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-06-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-169
1.5917
Delta
+0.90%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1228
UUIDe26eb22c-2b3f-4c51-92b2-e5852cf05fe4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0d129940b9ef133d9863f705c56c7cc4a0b5710f172f9786cc5aec7a21b30414
Closing line-169 captured 2026-06-20 00:17 UTC
CLV delta+0.90%
Closing hash24bb03417528b637d53f0525e2e80cd0885215ff02df703f7154e6351df73f9c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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