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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-13🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fbe147a8

Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals

-168risk0.11u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-168

Closing

-168

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.2% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +16.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners3
Washington Nationals8
Winner: Washington Nationals · 2026-06-13
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-168
1.5952
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1157
UUIDeefbcc03-44a3-4134-af47-bdc57436dbfa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfbe147a8858e8b2710b4fb16476c24cb7eb7223fe3c83283a4466a959145839d
Closing line-168 captured 2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashfc4dfaf063cf0db98a8ea19f0c7dbbd114dd4f6c19e1002f510a4235bd9e1782

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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