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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a4c6bf6a

Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Total Bases

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-150

CLV

-3.64%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.6% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+15.9% vs league avg over 264 games)
  • 79.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-150+0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-3.64%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1056
UUIDf4f9102c-c837-470a-bd38-622b064ae92d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha4c6bf6ae7390028797da65a097881835fef00fef5a2bca558772079d105d9ec
Closing line-150 captured 2026-05-27 21:06 UTC
CLV delta-3.64%
Closing hashda34a6e791416de5913b0cc97d6022b3683c6c6ddd92034e93c26434f951d7c2

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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