Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Total Bases
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
-165
WIN
Edge
Empirical 79.6% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Game context
Context signals
- +17.3pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+15.9% vs league avg over 264 games)
- 79.6% over last 15 games
Line movement
-165-150+0.06 decModel Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
66
Settled
66
Hit rate
54.0%
34-29
ROI
-15.01%
-1.09u
CLV avg
+0.42%
n=48
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-3.64%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1056
UUIDf4f9102c-c837-470a-bd38-622b064ae92d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha4c6bf6ae7390028797da65a097881835fef00fef5a2bca558772079d105d9ec
Closing line-150 captured 2026-05-27 21:06 UTC
CLV delta
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