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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6293e132

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Hits

Athletics @ San Diego Padres

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-190

CLV

+4.06%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.8% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +13.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 375f7b)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +13.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+8.9% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Petco Park: 10 mph wind blowing IN (NW): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-170-190-0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+4.06%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1016
UUIDb8dbdafa-51a0-477d-b980-118d100b15e1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6293e13260e8dfc219fd7753c4d9fa9f72ae309e147fd2b351de43a67f81be72
Closing line-190 captured 2026-05-23 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+4.06%
Closing hash0cfcd36d8857a83d276294c64339fe3ffeaab7d823698f35a1ef176007a67a63

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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