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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b6504776

Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 Hits

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-155

CLV

-2.38%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 74.4% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +12.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #26 vs this prop (-9.6% vs league avg over 272 games)
  • 74.4% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-155+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-155
1.6452
Delta
-2.38%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1061
UUIDc9bda4f4-284e-4705-9ea3-792f51736dc1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb65047768966b408b0442b62c854658742f93bdc059adc6aa49e73c678da723f
Closing line-155 captured 2026-05-27 22:36 UTC
CLV delta-2.38%
Closing hash196bc2f602d5871afc795e7a15d0836274dafafa6619b63677bc66f81684a219

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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