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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 72ae504c

Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 Total Bases

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

-180risk0.2u→win0.11u
WIN

Stake

0.2u

Odds

-180

Closing

-135

CLV

-10.64%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 92.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +28.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 78e66e)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +28.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+17.6% vs league avg over 287 games)
  • 92.9% over last 15 games

Line movement

-180-135+0.19 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-135
1.7407
Delta
-10.64%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1117
UUID480c8cde-cadf-434a-8e1e-3a5b08327915
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash72ae504c255ac59d082f17b3a68d21376969a861c60f2fac5a7fa28c3f18a6e9
Closing line-135 captured 2026-06-04 00:01 UTC
CLV delta-10.64%
Closing hash15d463946fa1b468386e55b664d9303c6b7a2d893f04fb8ccfd4bd16303568fb

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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