Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Total Bases
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 63.6% implied → +16.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks1
Cincinnati Reds2
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1159
UUID6e29087d-381b-43c8-90a6-5bc1c1155255
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d8814c9b0168526fbf959d1cbb7cdf0b1b1ee13b5b15fbb90e0960f0c7ba1fc
Closing line-175 captured 2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash4bf48e02f2c00be4eb8e64e7ef85e69b289130746b41fb7a005838eb0f71d05a
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