Philadelphia Phillies -1
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 59.2% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Philadelphia Phillies → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
New York Mets3
Philadelphia Phillies15
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-145
1.6897
Closing
+109
2.0900
Delta
-19.16%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1262
UUIDf5282b27-9f78-4b82-ae98-2061a43c5683
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 22:01 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 02:10 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823447:2026-06-20T23:15:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashee028e761f36d8d4a18021a6cc21d9eafdd1a37f577156087baa7715397c6928
Closing line+109 captured 2026-06-20 23:17 UTC
CLV delta-19.16%
Closing hashc529dc47858697eee638a9dcb60e233e57965a66f2ff608d657a622bd1125302
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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