Under 8.5
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edge
Friendly alt under at 59.2% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
New York Mets3
Philadelphia Phillies15
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-115
1.8696
Closing
-107
1.9346
Delta
-3.36%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1264
UUIDd610e72f-a56d-4546-92a6-73557945b0d3
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-20 22:01 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 02:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823447:2026-06-20T23:15:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5dfe560e749932698e6d814de099ac20a6a7e3054bba9e46fb9aca3508fb4558
Closing line-107 captured 2026-06-20 23:17 UTC
CLV delta-3.36%
Closing hashf8235cdb068b6b8f612fbb274ffe9861f86860540372431ec659b398125747eb
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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