Philadelphia Phillies -1
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 57.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Philadelphia Phillies → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
New York Mets2
Philadelphia Phillies6
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-135
1.7407
Closing
+114
2.1400
Delta
-18.66%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1282
UUID7638e0c2-9038-48d8-95e7-f862bb1f7cdd
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 22:06 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 02:14 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823449:2026-06-21T23:20:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha847a405b7ac2beb23652e5953366b00b8236edaff62211aee4a875da2d87047
Closing line+114 captured 2026-06-21 23:21 UTC
CLV delta-18.66%
Closing hash12e1bfd4b83f54c4e3e032576510254b4800ab6791844986f7d1622d7dc9d191
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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