Over 7
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edge
Friendly alt over at 63.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (63.6% vs 64.3%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
New York Mets2
Philadelphia Phillies6
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-114
1.8772
Delta
-16.29%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1283
UUIDe85c6262-eef5-4d91-89e8-4f44f63de920
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 22:06 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 02:19 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823449:2026-06-21T23:20:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaee41f0ecdf7a2608a4f081010965199e9f7e83652b142aeb2c6c928247a92c9
Closing line-114 captured 2026-06-21 23:21 UTC
CLV delta-16.29%
Closing hashd1b8f708c8a4ca8e4cca88e12e1dcfced34056f387746b600e415070fba7af27
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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