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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8b1e6983

Nick Sogard Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-145

CLV

-4.95%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 87.9% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #24 vs this prop (-5.3% vs league avg over 265 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Fenway Park: 13 mph wind blowing OUT (SW): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-165-145+0.08 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-145
1.6897
Delta
-4.95%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1045
UUID135260cb-41ff-40f3-b45c-f9f3a87aac14
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8b1e69833c9236f50203abb09815058e9ee13bd785620ee6b3704c9b51bd41e1
Closing line-145 captured 2026-05-26 21:17 UTC
CLV delta-4.95%
Closing hash2626a641ceef816d463d95ce00233223758ea12b3c9c75f7244c856936dd69f1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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