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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED bd32449d

Victor Caratini Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-152

CLV

-3.13%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Dodgers12
Minnesota Twins3
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-06-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-152
1.6579
Delta
-3.13%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1309
UUID53aacade-3504-4601-9212-0310117b5ba6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-23 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbd32449d1fc16a52735124d7179ca1e8ed275e5b03eaf910915c08aca6d35b60
Closing line-152 captured 2026-06-23 22:12 UTC
CLV delta-3.13%
Closing hash7ef1d4349356eaef17cf8f6a88213ba332377acf916788b56e8b8d6f13bfdc2b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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