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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9f0e03b1

Willy Adames Over 0.5 Hits

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-199

CLV

+4.59%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.4% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-0.1% vs league avg over 277 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Oracle Park: 14 mph wind blowing OUT (WSW): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-175-199-0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-199
1.5025
Delta
+4.59%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1036
UUID54d08bd5-f9dc-4bdc-8cbe-49a7c885a830
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-26 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9f0e03b17cc218e9c268097b14aac021b55fa296c84ab3ee453a26faf5e4665b
Closing line-199 captured 2026-05-25 20:32 UTC
CLV delta+4.59%
Closing hash273bd8733a46fb8f98a9b2992acea4bee431d2462e253deeedf8919171a6ab81

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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