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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4d590b3e

Riley Greene Under 1.5 Total Bases

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +8.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles10
Detroit Tigers9
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1636
UUID58dae20b-6ca2-4fe2-9dd3-0678741476a0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d590b3ef30f774721247c22c79ceea79b0fb55be478ed95488c62ffd393738e
Closing line-175 captured 2026-07-29 15:42 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash1769b57223dba4d88e145dae385d2ffc1d982574ca767f465c069f4ade56ef72

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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