Under 11.5
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Edge
Friendly alt under at 72.2% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 72.2% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners8
Houston Astros3
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-05-14
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#741
UUID4b01ee1f-118e-4d2b-ae86-89d71e1ed6cb
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-14 17:41 UTC
Graded2026-05-14 21:14 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824196:2026-05-14T18:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe633d5f3d1e9db6926dc6a0ca4b77cab4c28c5fb96b3557198d978c1f61ced15
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