Pittsburgh Pirates +2
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 75.4% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Pittsburgh Pirates → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing. · elite-gate: n=15 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies11
Pittsburgh Pirates9
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-05-15
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#760
UUID74936d5c-027d-4f11-bb7d-682ec2cc2f08
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-15 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-05-16 02:14 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823384:2026-05-15T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha34513d01abeca3ed0695759acdf05ec4fe93230d4e4039ca13e9594dfc4abda
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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